OK, class, we’ve got to hit the books a little harder because what we’ve learned so far while betting the PGA Tour in 2024 isn’t adding up.
This week’s Tour stop, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, will be held in SoCal for the third straight week. The tournament will be played at legendary Pebble Beach as well as Spyglass Hill.
So while the stars will be in full display (both the PGA Tour pros and the sports stars), this tournament ups its ante this week as it is one of the designated events on Tour. The tournament features a $20 million payout with the winner pocketing $3.6 million along with 700 FedEx Cup points.
All of that means the big names on the PGA Tour will be front and center as the field features 18 of the top 20 players in the world rankings.
We’re looking at a shootout between some of the sports biggest names, well, maybe.
Here’s where we’re not 100 percent sure.
Betting on big PGA names hasn’t paid off yet in 2024
During the first four week’s of 2024 we’ve had one winner who made sense, Chris Kirk at the season-opening Sentry in Maui. After all, he’s now won eight times on Tour.
But then came three straight weeks with winners that many golf fans won’t recognize…let alone bet on.
The first, Grayson Murray at The Sony Open, won early in his career at an off-field event (the 2017 Barbasol Championship) but has just nine top-10 finishes in 130 career starts since that win.
It gets weirder.
Next up was Nick Dunlop, who was playing college golf at Alabama before he won The American Express as an amateur. He’s now turned pro and will make his Tour debut this week and hope to start cashing those huge paychecks.
And finally we’ve got Frenchman Matthieu Pavon who won last week’s event at Torrey Pines in just his third start as a PGA Tour member.
So while we’re going to look at one player who should be in the mix come Sunday’s final round we are also going to take a look at a player down the list who isn’t on everyone’s radar (or anyone’s?) just because sometimes streaks continue.
Last year’s winner was Justin Rose who everyone knows. But the prior three winners — Tom Hoge, Daniel Berger and Nick Taylor — weren’t on many bettors’ radar at the start of their winning week.
So, class, what we’ve learned this week is we may need to expand our choices when it comes to answering that age-old PGA Tour betting question: Who’s going to win this week?
Related: Best golf betting sites and apps
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am odds: Favorites at disadvantage
The top two choices in this week’s tournament, Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler at , will certainly garner their share of backing as they are definitely the star-power this week.
But, as we noted earlier, the favorites tend to also get some of the bigger names when it comes to the high-paying amateur stars. That can be problematic when it comes to trying to tone down the raucous crowds that will follow both the player and the amateur.
But, move down the list to a Tour pro who may be playing with an airline or hotel CEO and they can concentrate on just playing golf.
Longshot bet to consider for AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
We’re going to check out Kevin Yu at .
If you haven’t heard of Yu, check out the leaderboard over the last two events.
He did miss the cut at the Sony Open despite rounds of 68 and 71 in his first start of 2024.
But over the past two weeks he’s stepped up his game, big-time.
He finished T-3 at The American Express, racing up the leaderboard with a final-round 63.
He then finished T-6 last week at Torrey Pines with a birdie-birdie finish to again pick up spots on the leaderboard.
He’s only had 36 PGA Tour starts and just six top-10s. But, two of those top-10s came over the last two weeks.
He’s probably not going to be playing with one of the big-name amateur stars this week which should allow him to concentrate of getting that first Tour victory.
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One AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am favorite bet to consider
We can’t overlook all of the favorites.
That’s why we’re going to stay with Xander Schauffele at .
Schauffele is coming off a so-so week at Torrey Pines, at least on the greens.
He wound up T-9 despite the fact he missed enough putts to rank 73rd in the field of 79 players who made the cut.
We’re betting he’s going to get that part of his game back on the right track this week in his hunt for win No. 9 on the PGA Tour.
He didn’t win in 2023 which is also going to be a driving force going forward in 2024.
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am prop picks
We’re going to check out DraftKings for a couple of prop bets.
The first one we’re going to look at is the winner birdieing the 72nd hole at +175.
Granted, that hasn’t happened over the last few tournaments although Berger did eagle the hole in his 2021 victory.
It’s a par-5 which certainly opens up the possibility a little more than if it was a par-4.
This might be a tough bet to cash in on though as the winning margin in the last seven tournaments has been at least two strokes.
Maybe it’s time to have a cliff-hanger finish.
Along those lines of a thrilling finish, we’re also going to jump on the bet of the winner not being in the final group at +175.
There’s nothing stopping someone in an earlier group from birdieing the final hole to grab the lead and then watching everyone else fall by the wayside and we pick up two winning bets.
Finally, check out the three-way bet to win of Schauffele (who we already like), Max Homa and Collin Morikawa at +550.
If we’re going to look at three high-profile players at solid odds, this one stands out.
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