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Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona prediction, odds, expert football betting tips and best bets for La Liga match

Both Barcelona and Atletico Madrid enter the Metropolitano Stadium looking to salvage any possible glimmer of hope in the La Liga title race on Sunday. Realistically, only one can emerge with that tiny sliver of optimism intact.

Real Madrid are beginning to pull away with the Spanish top flight crown this season, sitting seven points adrift at the summit. Barcelona are eight points back in third, while Atletico Madrid are fourth a further six behind that.

Dropping even more points here would be essentially fatal as it pertains to the title race, and could be damaging in the top four push as well. Athletic Club sit fifth in the table, just two points behind Atletico Madrid, and could go above Atleti into the final Champions League position should they beat Alaves at home on Saturday and Diego Simeone’s side drop points here.

Barcelona hold a four-match winning streak against Atletico Madrid, with each of the last three victories coming via 1-0 scorelines. With Xavi set to depart at the end of this rocky campaign, it would do the former Barca midfielder wonders to get a result here and crack on with the Champions League quarterfinals on the horizon.

USA: Click here to see the latest odds for Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona and bet La Liga matches

Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona prediction, odds

  • Moneyline lean: Atletico Madrid (+130)
  • Score prediction: Atletico Madrid 2-1 Barcelona

Atletico Madrid have been one of the most difficult teams in Europe to sort out. They have the capability to generate results against anyone, coming off an emotional upset victory over in-form Italian side Inter to advance in the Champions League.

Yet they also lack any semblance of consistency, without consecutive victories across all competitions since late January, sporting five defeats in that span.

The main commonality between their varying results is venue. For all their faults this season, Atletico Madrid have made the Metropolitano Stadium a fortress, while each of their last four defeats have come on the road. Barcelona are in solid form, unbeaten since the wacky 5-3 defeat to Villarreal in late January, but have struggled against Atleti on the road of late, winning just two of their last six visits.


Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona match facts

  • Date: Sunday, Mar. 17, 2024
  • Kickoff time: 9 p.m. local (4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT)
  • Location: Civitas Metropolitano (Madrid, Spain)
  • Referee: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez, VAR: Mario Melero Lopez
  • Last meeting: Barcelona 1-0 Atletico Madrid (Dec. 3, 2023 | La Liga)

Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona best bet

  • Pick: Atletico Madrid to win first half
  • Odds: +180 (BetMGM)

We are predicting Atletico Madrid to win the match, but regardless of the eventual outcome, another trend to lean on this season is Barcelona’s massive lean towards a second half performance.

Xavi’s side has been miles better after the break all year long, while they look exceedingly vulnerable out of the gates. They have just 16 first-half goals this year in La Liga, which ranks ninth, but have bagged a massive 41 in the second half, most in the Spanish top flight.

This was even the case midweek in the Champions League, as they were ahead 2-1 at halftime largely thanks to Napoli’s poor finishing, but looked by far the better side as the game wound down. Atletico Madrid will punish Barcelona for their early mistakes, and if Barca are to get a result, it will likely have to be in comeback fashion.

Atletico Madrid, meanwhile, are the opposite. They come out of the gates flying with 25 goals before the break, good for second in the league behind only Girona’s 27. Their 29 second-half goals, meanwhile, are fourth in the league, largely down to exceptional finishing. 

Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona prop bet

  • Pick: Antoine Griezmann anytime goal scorer
  • Odds: +180 (BetMGM)

There are very few players not named Antoine Griezmann who pose a threat in front of goal for Atletico Madrid at the moment, as everything flows through the Frenchman. Alvaro Morata has just one goal in his last 11 matches across all competitions, Angel Correa has scored all of his seven league goals against far inferior opposition, and the team’s fourth-leading scorer is still Yannick Carrasco who moved to Saudi club Al Shabab in the winter window.

Back from an ankle injury, Griezmann was the best player on the pitch by a cavernous margin in the midweek Champions League win over Inter, and he will remain the key focal point of the Atletico Madrid counter-attack, something Barcelona are susceptible to with a patchwork lineup.

Griezmann has a shocking 14-match league scoreless drought against Barcelona, but he has ripped off 14 shots in his last three games against the Blaugrana, so that streak should finally come to an end here.

Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona live stream, TV channel

  TV channel Streaming
USA ESPN Deportes Fubo USA, ESPN+, WatchESPN
Canada  — TSN+
UK ITV 4, Viaplay Sports 1 ITVX, Viaplay UK, LaLigaTV

The U.S. broadcast rights for the Spanish top flight are owned by ESPN, with every match of the 2023/24 season available to stream on ESPN+ in both English and Spanish. Additionally, a Spanish-language broadcast is available for this match on ESPN Deportes, which is available to stream on Fubo, who are offering a free trial for new users.

TSN are the rights-holders for La Liga matches in Canada, with every game found streaming on TSN+. In the UK, the match can be found on both ITV 4 and Viaplay Sports 1, while streaming is available on both of their streaming platforms as well as on LaLigaTV.

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