Aston Villa continue their hunt for Champions League football as they host injury-stricken Newcastle in a midweek Premier League battle.
This year’s most entertaining surprise, Villa sit fourth in the Premier League table. While they are conceivably right in the thick of the title fight, level on points with Arsenal and Man City, they will primarily be gunning for a top-four place before thinking about a possible finish atop the standings.
Villa have proven capable of both out-scoring opponents in goal-laden matches and also grinding out low-scoring results in matches that get bogged down. It’s an impressive double proficiency that has led Unai Emery’s side to a spot amongst the league leaders.
Newcastle, meanwhile, have struggled to put both phases of the game together across the season, as Eddie Howe deals with an unimaginable injury crisis that has seen all four position groups sapped of talent and depth. The latest to go down is midfielder Joelinton whose thigh injury required surgery last week.
USA: Click here to see the latest odds for Aston Villa vs Newcastle and bet Premier League matches
Aston Villa vs Newcastle prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean: Aston Villa (-105)
- Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-1 Newcastle
While Newcastle blasted Aston Villa in the reverse fixture back in August in the season opener, these two teams are in vastly different positions since then.
|Aston Villa win
to score Y/N
|+110 / -145
|Over / Under
|+130 / -175
Aston Villa vs Newcastle match facts
- Date: Tuesday, Jan. 30, 2024
- Kickoff Time: 8:15 p.m. local (3:15 p.m. ET / 12:15 p.m. PT)
- Location: Villa Park (Birmingham, England)
- Referee: John Brooks, VAR: Andy Madley
- Last meeting: Newcastle 5-1 Aston Villa (Aug. 12, 2023 | Premier League)
Aston Villa vs Newcastle: best bet
- Pick: Aston Villa to win 2nd half
- Odds: +115 (DraftKings)
While the remaining fit Newcastle players have performed admirably, they have repeatedly struggled late in matches as their energy reserves run lower due to squad constraints.
Newcastle have a +4 goal differential in the second half of league matches this season, but when you zoom in to just the eight games since the start of December, their -6 differential is the second-worst in the English top flight, as is their -4.56 xG/xGA differential. Put plainly, the Magpies are falling apart late in games as they tire.
Meanwhile, Villa have the fourth-most points gained from losing positions in the Premier League this season, having snatched three wins and three draws from the 10 games in which they’ve fallen behind. In the same span of matches since the start of December in which Newcastle have faltered, Villa have a +3.07 xG differential and have been exceptional defensively. The hosts will win this match after the break.
Aston Villa vs Newcastle prop bet
- Pick: Douglas Luiz anytime goal scorer
- Odds: +275 (DraftKings)
With Aston Villa’s opponents paying increased attention to Ollie Watkins and minimising his impact, the club has been forced to find goals from other individuals within the squad. Watkins has scored just one goal in his last seven Premier League matches as his volume decreases.
Douglas Luiz has seen his opportunities in the attacking third increase, and he got a payoff against Burnley with the 89th-minute winner. Luiz had five goals in the first nine matches of the year, but saw a nine-match scoreless streak snapped with that goal in late December.
Since the start of December, Luiz has collected 17 shots over seven games worth 2.38 xG, including three matches with four or more shots. He also had four shots last time these two teams matched up, unlucky not to score.
Aston Villa vs Newcastle live stream, TV channel
|USA Network, Universo
|Fubo USA, Peacock, NBC Sports app
|TNT Sports 1
This Premier League match between Aston Villa and Newcastle has been selected by NBC for television, to air in English on USA Network in the United States, which is available to stream on Fubo. A Spanish-language broadcast can be found on Universo, which is also available to stream on Fubo.
The match can also be found streaming on NBC’s premium platform Peacock and NBC Sports app, for those with valid login credentials.
Fubo has the exclusive broadcast rights to the Premier League in Canada, with every game streaming on the platform across this season and next season as well.
In the UK, this match will be shown on TNT Sports 1, with streaming on the discovery+ platforms.
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