Last time these two teams met in late December, West Ham caught Arsenal amidst a poor run of form, taking advantage of the Gunners as they slumped into the new year and coughed up the lead in the Premier League title race.
Just about six weeks later, the roles are reversed as the two London clubs clash on Sunday. Arsenal are riding a three-match winning streak, on the heels of a boosting victory over Liverpool last time out which vaulted them back into the thick of the hunt.
The Hammers, meanwhile, have gone four without victory in league play, their last coming against this very side in their final match of the calendar year. West Ham have only slipped from sixth to seventh in that time, but the gap between them and the top four has widened considerably.
The downturn has coincided with a calf injury to essential midfield spark Lucas Paqueta suffered in the reverse fixture between these two clubs, and while he won’t return here, he is expected to be back shortly.
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Arsenal vs West Ham prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean: West Ham (+500)
- Score prediction: West Ham 2-1 Arsenal
Everything about the form of both teams indicates this should be a comfortable Arsenal win…which is why this is the perfect trap game. The Gunners, riding high after their emotional win over Liverpool, now must refocus and carry on with a title chase that remains very crowded and very daunting.
The absurd narrative of “over-celebration” after the Liverpool game will only add to the difficulty of pressing on to keep competing at a high level.
Furthermore, while West Ham are in a rut, they have also been extremely unlucky, let down by poor finishing. The Hammers are still without Lucas Paqueta, which has clearly had an effect on their form, but the underlying metrics indicate they will come out of it soon. They generated more chances than their opponents in each of their last two games, actually out-shooting Man United significantly despite losing 3-0, and were equally as creative in the 1-1 draw with Bournemouth prior to that.
There’s upset all over this London derby, and the Hammers should be up to the task as long as they can finish their dang chances for once (looking at you Jarrod Bowen and Mohammed Kudus), especially after winning the reverse fixture at the Emirates Stadium just over a month ago.
|West Ham win
to score Y/N
|-135 / +110
|Over / Under
|-160 / +110
Arsenal vs West Ham match facts
- Date: Sunday, Feb. 11, 2024
- Kickoff Time: 2 p.m. local (9 a.m. ET / 6 a.m. PT)
- Location: London Stadium (London, England)
- Referee: Craig Pawson, VAR: John Brooks
- Last meeting: Arsenal 0-2 West Ham (Dec. 28, 2023 | Premier League)
Arsenal vs West Ham best bet
- Pick: 28+ total shots
- Odds: -115 (FanDuel)
This is an annoyingly high bar for both sides to clear, but they’ve shown a propensity to do so, even in low-scoring matches.
In the 2-0 West Ham win at Arsenal in late December, the two sides combined for 36 shots, with Arsenal generating 30 of those. More recently, West Ham out-shot Man United 22-12 despite the 3-0 defeat for David Moyes, indicating that both in victory and defeat, the Hammers play in matches with chances at both ends.
Brighton walloped West Ham for 22 shots in a 0-0 draw in early January, and Liverpool ripped off 29 total shots in a 5-1 Reds win in the EFL Cup quarterfinals in December. Even if Arsenal get up early, they will want to take revenge on the Hammers for winning at their place earlier in the season, and may have something to prove after the over-celebration criticism this week. There will be efforts on both ends, whether the sides finish them expertly or not.
Arsenal vs West Ham prop bet
- Pick: Mohammed Kudus to score or assist a goal
- Odds: +290 (FanDuel)
While West Ham have sputtered in front of goal of late, they have created plenty of chances. In the absence of injured Lucas Paqueta, Mohammed Kudus has come back from the Africa Cup of Nations and been important to the side. He took four shots against Manchester United last time out in defeat, his second game back with the side after returning from AFCON duty.
He was also extremely active for Ghana while away, collecting a massive nine shots between his two appearances, scoring twice. Said Benrahma’s departure only indicates further West Ham’s investment in Kudus, and the 23-year-old should be a major player here if the home side are to spring the upset.
Arsenal vs West Ham live stream, TV channel
|USA Network, Telemundo
|Fubo USA, Peacock, Telemundo Deportes en Vivo
|Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports Premier League
|Sky Go Extra
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